A year before the US presidential election, polls show Democratic President Joe Biden trailing Republican candidate Donald Trump in five of the six most important battleground states.
These findings have been primarily attributed to American concerns about Biden’s age and dissatisfaction with his handling of the economy.
The New York Times and Siena College poll released Sunday indicates Trump leads in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania, while Biden holds the lead in Wisconsin.
In the 2020 election, Biden emerged victorious in all six of these states, which are traditionally considered swing states. However, current polls show Trump leading in these key states by an average of 48% to 44%.
Presidential elections in the United States are often determined by the results of these few swing states. Biden’s victory in these states was crucial in ensuring his victory in the 2020 election. To secure re-election, he will likely need to carry several of these states once again.
In response to the election results, Biden campaign spokesman Kevin Munoz said predictions made more than a year ago could change. He pointed to a previous Gallup prediction that incorrectly projected an 8-point loss for President Obama, who ultimately easily won the election.
Muñoz emphasized the campaign’s focus on reaching and organizing a diverse coalition of voters, highlighting the choice between his populist agenda and Republican “MAGA” (Make America Great Again) ideology. He stressed that his strategy is to focus on his work rather than worrying about polling numbers.
Polls also show that Biden’s multi-racial and multi-generational coalition may be weak. His lead among voters under 30 is smaller, and his lead among Hispanic voters has dropped to single digits.
His lead in urban areas is only half of Trump’s lead in rural areas. Notably, black voters, who traditionally support Democrats, are showing 22% support for Trump in these states, a significant departure from previous polls.
Since the election is still a year away, some experts believe Democratic concerns are premature. Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, emphasized that the economy plays an important role, and it takes time for people to adapt to new economic realities.
Sabato cautioned against undue panic and insisted that the polls serve as a useful warning about the work ahead for Democrats.