Analysts predict Moderna will meet COVID-19 forecast for 2023

Syringes with needles are seen in front of the Moderna logo displayed in this illustration taken on November 27, 2021.  - Reuters
Syringes with needles are seen in front of the Moderna logo displayed in this illustration taken on November 27, 2021. – Reuters

According to industry experts, Moderna is expected to meet the low end of its sales target for this year because to achieve that target it only needs to satisfy a small portion of the private market with its COVID-19 vaccine. is required.

According to the four analysts we spoke to reutersIt’s possible for Moderna to achieve $2 billion in private market sales in 2023 if about 20 million people are vaccinated with its updated COVID-19 vaccine.

The company has said it expects total U.S. COVID-19 vaccine demand to reach 100 million doses in the fall.

Moderna predicts $6-8 billion in COVID-19 vaccine sales in 2023, with $2-4 billion coming from the commercial market. Pfizer’s full-year forecast for COVID-19 vaccine sales was cut by nearly $2 billion due to lower-than-expected vaccination rates.

Moderna shares have fallen nearly 22% since its bigger rival’s warning.

“It’s unlikely that Moderna’s sales outlook will decline as negatively as Pfizer’s because they have started out much more conservative,” said Hartaj Singh, analyst at Oppenheimer & Co.

Michael Yee, an analyst at Jefferies, said the rollout of the new shots was slow initially but is accelerating, citing recent data. Yee expects most of the demand to come from people age 65 and older.

Moderna reported third-quarter results on Thursday, two days after Pfizer reported its first quarterly loss since 2019 as the US government returned millions of doses of its COVID-19 antiviral treatment Paxlovid There was a list as well. Its COVID-19 vaccine Comirnaty.

Cambridge, Massachusetts-based company Moderna has seen its research and development (R&D) costs rise 62% to $1.1 billion in the second quarter of 2021, despite a COVID-19 vaccine being its only marketed product. Because its goal is to introduce other products. ,

The company’s RSV vaccine, which it aims to launch in the US in 2024, was found to be 82.4% effective in older adults with three or more symptoms in a late-stage trial. It will compete with the recently approved vaccines from Pfizer and GSK.

Data from a late-stage study of Moderna’s flu vaccine with an updated formulation released in September showed that it generated a stronger immune response against all four A and B strains of influenza viruses than traditional flu shots.

Moderna’s broader mRNA-based respiratory pipeline, which includes RSV and flu vaccines, is expected to reach $10 billion to $12 billion in sales by 2025, Yee said, which will reduce spending and bring R&D stability.

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